The U.S. and EU bungled the special situation of the Crimea, but now there are enclaves of ethnic Russians in Ukraine trying to escape from Ukrainian government control and perhaps become part of the Russian Federation. These are quite different cases from the Crimea. Crimea was never an intrinsic part of the Ukraine the way the Donetsk region has been. what are the alternatives? If the crisis continues on its present trajectory here is what will happen providing that war does not break out, which would be immeasurably costly:

• The enclaves have carried out plebicites which indicate overwhelming preference for independence.
• The ethic Russians will take over the government buildings again and again in their enclaves. They can be removed only at significant loss of lives.
• Russia will probably accept the enclaves appeal to join the Federation.
• Ukraine will cancel its purchase of energy from Russia and prohibit the transport of Russian energy through the Ukraine to EU countries.
• The U.S. and the EU will have to provide energy supplies from sources other than the Russian Federation. This will involve higher costs and Ukraine will have to be subsidized.
• Russia will suffer a loss of export earnings from lower volumes and lower prices for its energy.
• The West will suffer financially from higher energy prices and Russia from its loss of export earnings.
• The administration in the U.S. will deliver rhetoric, but not much else and the United States will appear to be ineffective in international politics.
• There will be a return to the Cold War mentality in international politics. Although no one intends for the situation to develop into a confrontation betweein U.S. and Russia there is a clear risk that this could happen. The Cuban Missle crisis showed that such a confrontation almost immediately escalates to the nuclear level. In the Cuban missile crisis the American bombers were in the air with their nuclear weapons loaded with their tritium triggers and the alert level was just one level below the level in which the bombers could not be called back.

The alternative to the above is for the Ukraine to sell
the territories of the enclaves of ethnic Russians to the Russian Federation.

• The rebellious enclaves probably are of very little value to the Ukraine in terms of such things as tax collections.
• The Ukrainian government will get financial funds it desperately needs.
• Carrying out the transfer of the ethnic Russian enclaves on the border of the Ukraine peacefully would save the Ukraine and its Western supporters the cost of higher priced energy.
• The payment could be in terms of future deliveries of energy to the Ukraine from the Russian Federation.
• The cost of these deliveries to the Russian Federation might well be negligible compared to the loss of revenue it would experience under a militant transfer of the enclaves.
• The EU and the U.S. might well pay the Ukraine to sell the enclaves to the Russian Federation given the cost to them of the alternative.
• The peaceful transfer of the enclaves would avoid the return to the cold-war mentality.

The settling of the enclaves with a population of Russian speakers occurred because of the policies of Joseph Stalin. However those unfair policies cannot now be reversed. During the days when the Ukraine and Russia were tied together politically the enclaves were not much of a problem. With the Ukraine divorcing itself from Russia they are a problem and one that will not go away. One way or the other the enclaves of Russian speakers in the Ukraine will be transfered to Russia. That is inevitable. The only question is whether it can be done peacefully or with Russia utilizing its overwheming power in terms of the military and energy.

The big question is the price at which the territories should be transferred. One feasible solution tg that question is to create some international mediation committee that includes repesentatives of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine as well as representatives from outside the dispute. The problem is not the historical legal rights of the Ukraine to the territories of the enclaves but what would it take for Ukraine to be satisfied with the transfer. Ukraine should be able to pursue its own destiny with closer ties to the West, but Russians and Ukrainians, close culturally Slavic siblings, should remain on friendly terms.