San José State University

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Thayer Watkins
Silicon Valley
& Tornado Alley
USA

An Update of the
Most Reasonable Resolution
of the Ukraine Crisis

The U.S. and EU bungled the special situation of the Crimea, but now there are enclaves of ethnic Russians in Ukraine trying to escape from Ukrainian government control and perhaps become part of the Russian Federation. These are quite different cases from the Crimea. Crimea was never an intrinsic part of the Ukraine the way the Donetsk region has been. what are the alternatives? If the crisis continues on its present trajectory here is what will happen providing that war does not break out, which would be immeasurably costly:

The alternative to the above is for the Ukraine to sell
the territories of the enclaves of ethnic Russians to the Russian Federation.

The settling of the enclaves with a population of Russian speakers occurred because of the policies of Joseph Stalin. However those unfair policies cannot now be reversed. During the days when the Ukraine and Russia were tied together politically the enclaves were not much of a problem. With the Ukraine divorcing itself from Russia they are a problem and one that will not go away. One way or the other the enclaves of Russian speakers in the Ukraine will be transfered to Russia. That is inevitable. The only question is whether it can be done peacefully or with Russia utilizing its overwheming power in terms of the military and energy.

The big question is the price at which the territories should be transferred. One feasible solution tg that question is to create some international mediation committee that includes repesentatives of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine as well as representatives from outside the dispute. The problem is not the historical legal rights of the Ukraine to the territories of the enclaves but what would it take for Ukraine to be satisfied with the transfer. Ukraine should be able to pursue its own destiny with closer ties to the West, but Russians and Ukrainians, close culturally Slavic siblings, should remain on friendly terms.




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