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The Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Projections |
Chapter 9 in the third assessment report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis gives the projections of future climate change.
| Projections of Change in Global Average Surface Air Temperature (SAT) from 1961-1990 Average | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Effects | End Period | Average | Range |
| IS92a | Greenhouse gases plus sulfates | 2021-2050 | +1.3°C | 0.8 to 1.7°C |
| IS92a | Greenhouse gases only | 2021-2050 | 1.6°C | +1.0 to +2.1°C |
| SRES A2 | Greenhouse gases only | 2021-2050 | +1.1°C | +0.5 to 1.4°C |
| SRES B2 | Greenhouse gases only | 2021-2050 | 1.2°C | +0.5 to 1.7°C |
| SRES A2 | Greenhouse gases only | 2071-2100 | +3.0°C | +1,3 to 4.5°C |
| SRES B2 | Greenhouse gases only | 2071-2100 | +2.2°C | 0.9 to 3.4°C |
Here are some of the qualitative projections of the consequences of increased greenhouse gases which IPCC deems virtually certain to very likely because all of the models agree on them:
There are other less certain forecasts which IPCC nevertheless deems very likely.
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